Idoneidad actual y futura del hábitat y análisis del cambio de uso del suelo de Quercus macdougallii (Fagaceae) frente al cambio climático en Sierra Juárez, Oaxaca, México
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2026.322712Palabras clave:
Cobertura forestal, Maxent, Oaxaca, PSESP, Sierra Juárez, Uso del sueloResumen
Quercus macdougallii es un encino endémico y amenazado de la Sierra Juárez, en el estado de Oaxaca, México, con poblaciones extremadamente pequeñas (PSESP), restringidas a un espacio geográfico y altitudinal muy limitado. Su distribución y vulnerabilidad frente al cambio climático han sido poco estudiadas. Este trabajo tuvo como objetivo evaluar su distribución actual y futura, analizar los cambios en la cobertura forestal en su hábitat y determinar el grado de conservación bajo escenarios de cambio climático en la Sierra Juárez, Oaxaca. La distribución se modeló con MaxEnt y el cambio en la cobertura forestal se evaluó en zonas de influencia de 500 m a 5 km para 1979, 1995 y 2022. El modelo estimó un hábitat potencial actual de 1402 km² (1404 m – 3403 m s.n.m.), mientras que la distribución confirmada en campo es menor que 50 km² (entre 2600 m y 3150 m s.n.m.), con bajas densidades (1 ha-1 – 50 ha-1¹) y exclusión en áreas dominadas por Q. laurina, Q. crassifolia o Q. glabrescens. Los escenarios climáticos para 2050 y 2070 proyectaron reducciones entre 52% y 62% en el hábitat idóneo, siendo las áreas bajas y medias las más afectadas, mientras que las altas funcionarían como refugios parciales pero insuficientes. En el análisis histórico, la pérdida de cobertura forestal fue menor a 1% (1979 – 1995: -0.155% a -0.11%; 1995 – 2022: -0.06%), lo que indica que la transformación forestal local no representa una amenaza crítica. Sin embargo, el cambio climático anticipa una pérdida sustancial del hábitat. Estos resultados confirman la alta vulnerabilidad de Q. macdougallii y subrayan la urgencia de aplicar estrategias integrales de conservación.
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